A new experimental forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that this winter’s El Niño climate pattern could be one of the most intense ever observed. El Niño is developing alongside a surge in global temperatures, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods. While it is difficult to predict the exact impacts of El Niño months in advance, rising temperatures could potentially strengthen its capacity to trigger heavy rainfall in certain parts of the world. Climate models have already indicated the potential for intense El Niño conditions that could cause floods, heat waves, and droughts. NOAA forecasters estimate a 71% chance of a strong El Niño pattern developing by winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
An El Niño climate pattern is characterized by a surge of warmth in surface waters along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. The warmer these waters become, and the more they couple with west-to-east flowing winds over the Pacific, the stronger the El Niño and its influence on global weather. The current El Niño is predicted to be a little less intense than the historic El Niño of 1997-1998, but it is still expected to have significant impacts. Past El Niño events have caused severe coral bleaching, record cyclones, drought, and fires. However, the exact weather impacts of this El Niño are uncertain. While El Niño typically brings dry conditions to certain areas and wet conditions to others, each El Niño event can have its own unique weather patterns. Short-term weather phenomena can also affect the effects of El Niño and make them harder to detect.
Research is ongoing to understand the connections between El Niño and global warming, as well as El Niño and its impacts. Scientists are studying how El Niño might influence extreme precipitation events around the world. The research team behind the latest El Niño forecast is also exploring whether this El Niño event could be followed by a rapid transition to La Niña in the spring. Additionally, scientists are attempting to understand why it is relatively easier to predict the presence of an El Niño pattern than its impacts. This research is part of a broader effort to improve weather and climate predictions over longer time scales.