Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to break its six-year streak of September losses, but a potential federal government shutdown could jeopardize its recent gains. BTC has seen a 3.2% return this month, reaching $26,800, but has pulled back 1.6% from its peak at $27,400. The weakness in BTC’s price could put its positive monthly return at risk, as it started September at around $26,000. Ether (ETH), on the other hand, has remained mostly flat at $1,660 as investors anticipate the launch of futures-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) next week.
Ripple’s XRP, Solana’s SOL, and TRON’s native token have outperformed the broader digital asset market with gains of 3%-5%. However, macro uncertainty continues to weigh on the market, as bond markets globally show signs of distress and the looming US government shutdown adds to the uncertainty. Noelle Acheson, a macro analyst, noted that the US consumer spending growth in Q2 was revised lower, indicating potential vulnerability to tightening financial conditions. The government shutdown could also delay regulatory decisions, as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) staff will be significantly reduced.
Despite these uncertainties, crypto markets have remained resilient compared to the stock sell-off. The advisory firm Asgard Markets has a constructive outlook for risk assets in Q4 and expects BTC and ETH to break their range in the last month and a half. Historically, October has been a bullish month for bitcoin, with an average 22% increase in the market over the last decade. Markus Thielen, Head of Research at Matrixport, highlighted the potential for bitcoin to break out aggressively once interest rates become dovish. However, the rally above $30,000 is crucial for further momentum.