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What Do Betting Markets Indicate About Congress Control?

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David Bahnsen, managing partner of the Bahnsen Group, responded to a report on Varney & Co. indicating that CEOs are losing confidence in Kamala Harris as Donald Trump gains momentum in the polls. With Election Day fast approaching, voters are actively participating by heading to polling stations or submitting mail-in ballots, while betting markets speculate on whether Republicans or Democrats are likely to seize control of Congress.

The struggle for dominance in both the House of Representatives and the Senate has been intense in recent years, with slim majorities marking the previous two Congresses. Currently, the GOP holds a narrow 222-213 majority in the House as the 118th Congress begins, reflecting the same margin Democrats had at the start of the preceding Congress. Meanwhile, the Senate’s current composition includes a 51-49 Democratic majority, factoring in Independent senators who align with the Democrats. Previously, the Senate was evenly split at 50-50, with Democrats maintaining control through Vice President Harris’ tiebreaking vote.

Market traders on Polymarket anticipate that the pattern of narrow majorities could persist in the forthcoming Congress following the election. At present, there is an 83% likelihood of a GOP majority in the Senate, although traders expect this majority to be small.

Since early September, Polymarket traders have projected a 52-seat GOP majority as the most probable outcome, with confidence peaking at 52% in early October, subsequently declining to 25%. A slightly smaller 51-seat GOP majority is considered the next likely outcome, with a 16% probability. Additionally, traders foresee an 11% chance Republicans will secure 49 or fewer Senate seats, granting Democrats a slim majority. There is also a 9% possibility of a 50-50 bipartisan split, which would favor the party winning the presidency due to the vice president’s tiebreaking vote capabilities.

According to Polymarket, the contest for control of the House of Representatives stands as a toss-up, with House Democrats having a 50% chance of securing a majority in the past week. However, a separate market on the platform suggests that House Republicans might attain a larger majority than in recent years, with a 29% chance of claiming 230 or more seats in the House. Conversely, there is a 15% likelihood of the GOP obtaining fewer than 200 seats, potentially giving Democrats a majority exceeding 235 seats.

BetUS odds depict control of the House as evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, while Republicans are deemed strong favorites to capture the Senate.

The possibility of a “trifecta” control, where one party dominates both chambers of Congress and the presidency, has arisen during the first two years of the past three presidential administrations. Such trifectas enable the enactment of tax and spending policies using budget reconciliation, allowing for the passage of budget-related legislation with simple majority votes, bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold.

Traders on Polymarket assign a 46% chance of Republicans achieving a trifecta, with former President Trump winning alongside GOP majorities in the House and Senate. By contrast, a 15% chance exists for a Democratic trifecta following a victory by Vice President Harris and congressional Democrats. Bettors foresee a 20% chance of a Democratic president and House with a GOP Senate, compared to a 16% likelihood of Republicans claiming the presidency and Senate with Democrats leading the House. Only one other outcome—Democrats winning the presidency with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress—holds a 5% probability.

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