John Gauvreau, a retired real estate broker from Ontario, has visited Las Vegas over 30 times in recent years, but he has decided not to return this year. He canceled his planned flights and hotel reservations for May due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada and his hostile stance towards Ukraine. Instead, Gauvreau plans to go golfing in Niagara Falls, remaining on the Canadian side of the border, and has scheduled a month-long “winter sun” trip to Mexico next February. Gauvreau expressed that he would miss the convenience of traveling to the U.S., yet emphasized his pride in being Canadian.
In response to President Trump’s recent threats and economic measures against Canada, Canadian tourists, who represent the largest international tourist market for the U.S., are reducing their travel to the country. This change has prompted U.S. tourism hotspots and border towns to prepare for a potential decline in Canadian visitors. According to Statistics Canada, the number of Canadians returning from road trips to the U.S. decreased by nearly 25% in February compared to the previous year, and cross-border air travel has begun to slow, causing some airlines to cut back on flights to the U.S.
Air Canada spokesperson Christophe Hennebelle reported that, as of mid-March, bookings between Canada and the U.S. for the six-month period leading to September were down 10% compared to 2024. Air Canada also announced it was reducing capacity to popular U.S. destinations like Florida, Arizona, and Las Vegas. Adam Sacks, president of the research firm Tourism Economics, predicted a $9 billion decrease in international visitor spending in the U.S. for 2025, primarily due to a 20% drop in travel from Canada.
Regions closest to the Canadian border and winter destinations such as Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are likely to be most affected by this decline. In 2023, Las Vegas received 1.4 million Canadian visitors, constituting a quarter of all international tourists, as reported by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
While Canada is currently the only major nation with a significant boycott of the U.S., there are concerns among economists and tourism executives that other international visitors might also reduce travel due to reports of hostile treatment at U.S. borders following Trump’s return to office. This downturn poses a threat to a key sector supporting the U.S. labor market, as per ING’s analysis—88% of all job growth since December 2022 has been in leisure and hospitality, private education and health services, and government sectors.
Olu Sonola, U.S. head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, warned that while the impact of a single country’s decline might not affect the national labor market, a global boycott originating from the Canadian boycott could lead to job losses. These “hard localized impacts” would be notably severe in destinations popular with so-called “snowbirds,” or long-term winter visitors, who typically contribute more economically.
Stacy Ritter, CEO of tourism agency Visit Lauderdale in Fort Lauderdale, shared growing concerns about the situation with daily calls from regular visitors reconsidering trips to Florida. Ritter emphasized the importance of tourism to the local economy, noting that job losses are inevitable if visitation declines. Some realtors have also observed a trend of snowbirds selling their properties. Catherine Spino, a realtor in South Florida, described a significant shift beginning in January, partly due to high condo dues, unfavorable exchange rates, and the current administration’s stance, which has alienated many Canadians.
Similarly, Laurie Lavine, a Canadian-American realtor in Arizona, is witnessing an influx of Canadian clients eager to sell their U.S. properties due to Trump’s comments on the possibility of Canada becoming the “Cherished 51st State.” Businesses dependent on Canadian clients, such as hoteliers, retailers, and tour operators, have limited strategies available to counteract this situation. Mike Huckins, vice-president at the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, noted the difficulty Arizona businesses face in delivering a welcoming message to Canadians. Ritter also pointed out the challenge of promoting Fort Lauderdale as an inclusive destination amid fluctuating messages from the administration.
The ongoing boycott could hit small businesses the hardest. Lorenzo McGregor, owner of Tex’s Riverways in Utah, estimated a loss of approximately $10,000 from canceled Canadian bookings, highlighting the precarious nature of the outdoor recreation industry. McGregor noted that March was the slowest in the company’s history, underscoring the severity of the situation.