Politics / September 27, 2024
Democratic Candidates Leverage Organizational Advantages in Arizona and Nevada
Democratic candidates are utilizing significant organizational advantages in key states such as Arizona and Nevada, potentially turning out more voters than current polls suggest.
As of Monday, polls conducted by The New York Times indicated a narrow lead for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona. The Times highlighted Trump’s perceived "signs of strength" in the Sun Belt, despite other polls showing a tight race between Harris and Trump. This discrepancy raises questions about the accuracy and potential outlier nature of this particular poll.
Recent interactions with pollsters specializing in Western states have not corroborated a confident lead for Trump in Arizona. Furthermore, Kari Lake, the GOP Senate candidate, has been critiqued for her contentious rhetoric following her gubernatorial loss. Polls from Marist College and the Trafalgar Group show Ruben Gallego leading Lake by six and four points, respectively.
In Nevada, a similar scenario unfolds. Democratic Senator Jackie Rosen, initially considered vulnerable, now holds a substantial lead over Republican candidate Sam Brown, as indicated by recent Noble Predictive Insights data. Her advantage is supported by significant backing from independent voters. Other polling sources, including Fox, report similar findings.
Although Nevada and Arizona races remain close, effective ground strategies and strong down-ballot candidates play pivotal roles in electoral outcomes. In Nevada, unions such as the culinary workers’ union have executed impactful get-out-the-vote operations historically beneficial to Democrats. Following a landmark agreement with the Venetian, focus has shifted towards election efforts.
Kamala Harris’s campaign has established 13 field offices in Nevada, overshadowing Trump’s single office. Major labor unions like the SEIU and Teamsters have endorsed Harris, along with an extensive canvassing initiative by UNITE HERE aiming to reach 3.5 million doors across ten swing states, including Nevada and Arizona.
The close presidential race in these states is underscored by the Democrats’ superior organizational prowess, which may prove decisive in the final weeks leading to the election.