The White House Watch newsletter offers insights into the implications of the 2024 US election for Washington and the global landscape.
Donald Trump’s approach to politics is characterized by unpredictability and a transactional mindset, strategies that may be effective in real estate or debt restructuring. However, in the realm of international politics, this approach could have significant negative repercussions for both the United States and global stability.
One of the key strengths of the US compared to China or Russia is its extensive network of long-standing global alliances with countries such as Japan, Germany, Australia, Canada, and Britain. Despite occasional disagreements with specific US policies, these nations have maintained their alliances with America, rooted in shared interests and values.
The US-initiated tariff war and the often confrontational rhetoric from the Trump administration have seriously undermined this trust. Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, has expressed that America is “no longer a reliable partner.” Similarly, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s upcoming chancellor, has advocated for European independence from the US, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the tariffs on Australia as “not the act of a friend.”
The White House might view these statements as mere expressions of frustration. While affected governments may try to negotiate with Trump to minimize economic damage, they are also likely to adjust their policies to lessen their dependence on the US, aiming to reduce the risk of being influenced by American pressure. These adjustments could have lasting implications for America’s economic strength and global influence.
The economic and strategic fallout could impact US arms sales. With the US threatening Denmark’s Greenland, a NATO ally, the push to purchase European weaponry is gaining momentum in the EU. Trump’s protectionist measures cite reindustrialization as a goal, yet the unpredictable tariff policies may deter foreign investors from committing to long-term engagements in the US.
Further, Trump’s readiness to confront allies carries geopolitical implications. Some advisers believe the US has little strategic interest in Europe’s future, potentially leading to eroded trust among transatlantic partners. The Trump administration’s efforts are focused on countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, a goal shared by the previous Biden administration, which effectively strengthened alliances in the region. However, Trump’s tariffs have strained relations with key North-East Asian allies like Japan and South Korea. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba labeled these tariffs a “national crisis” and initiated emergency discussions.
Japan, South Korea, and Australia have collaborated with the US to curb Chinese power, believing in US support if needed. Yet, Trump’s unpredictable and adversarial actions are eroding this trust, potentially weakening America’s alliance framework and benefiting China.
The US president has significantly altered the Republican Party and America’s global reputation, swiftly dismantling long-standing relationships built over decades. Restoring this trust, even post-Trump, presents an enormous challenge, if it is feasible at all.