As of Tuesday morning, reliable predictors indicated that a tropical storm named Helene, located just south of Cuba, was on course to intensify in the upcoming days and was almost certainly expected to impact Florida as a hurricane on Thursday.
Attention is drawn to the public’s interest in observing cones and “spaghetti models” showing potential paths of the storm. Caution is advised in how this often-misunderstood information is consumed.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as of 11 a.m. ET, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for several regions. This includes much of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, a section of Florida from “Englewood to Indian Pass,” and the densely populated Tampa Bay area. A graphical representation from NOAA highlights these areas of concern.
NOAA’s cone graphic provides a reliable prediction of the possible paths that the center of the storm might take. This cone should not be interpreted as an ever-widening storm affecting extensive parts of the inland United States. Severe wind and storm surge are likely to occur outside the cone, and some areas within the cone might remain unaffected by the storm.
Should individuals find themselves in the hurricane’s direct path, evacuation orders will be prominent. It is advisable to heed NOAA’s broader warnings rather than speculate about the specific impact on particular neighborhoods. Heavy rainfall is expected to result in significant flash flooding across portions of Florida, with the potential for isolated flash and urban flooding throughout the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and Tennessee Valley from Wednesday through Friday.
Spaghetti models, like NOAA’s cone graphic, depict mathematical possibilities for the storm’s path. These models present predictions from various computer simulations, which often appear as tangled lines resembling spaghetti. However, like the cone, spaghetti models can be misleading. They represent various speculative paths, yet the storm will follow only one, which is unlikely to match any single prediction perfectly.
Meteorologist Malcolm Byron shared a spaghetti model online, showing about 20 potential paths, including an outlier suggesting a direct impact on Tampa Bay. The public is advised to treat such outliers with caution. Predictive outlier events rarely materialize, and actual weather events do not conform to averages of predictions. Although top weather models can be highly accurate, the precise path of weather phenomena remains unpredictable due to numerous influencing factors.