UBS Managing Director Jason Katz and Pence Wealth Management CIO Dryden Pence provided their insights on the S&P’s record lows and President Donald Trump’s tariff plans on ‘The Claman Countdown.’ In a recent interview, renowned economist Thomas Sowell discussed President Donald Trump’s tariffs, expressing concerns that widespread tariffs might initiate a trade war, resembling the adverse trade policies that exacerbated the Great Depression.
The Hoover Institution released an excerpt from an interview conducted with Sowell, who holds the Rose and Milton Friedman senior fellowship on public policy at the institution. This interview is a part of the think tank’s “Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson” series. During the discussion, Sowell, known for his conservative economic perspective, lamented the administration’s decision, comparing it to a detrimental choice made in the 1920s.
Sowell cited the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, introduced in 1929 and 1930, which aimed to shield American industries from foreign competition during the onset of the Great Depression. These tariffs led to retaliatory actions by other countries, causing a decline in global trade—an outcome economists largely agree worsened the Depression.
Sowell further remarked that if Trump’s tariffs serve as short-term, targeted measures to accomplish strategic objectives, they might succeed. However, maintaining them over the long term could replicate the dire history of a global trade conflict, prompting investors and consumers to hesitate amid the uncertainty.
Sowell also commented on President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s approach during the Depression, which involved experimenting with policies to revitalize the economy. While this strategy can be beneficial within a predictable rules-based framework, arbitrary actions can introduce uncertainty, suppressing economic activity without a consistent structure.
Additionally, Sowell emphasized the risks of a prolonged trial-and-error approach over a four-year period under the Trump administration, leading many to withhold investments due to the unpredictable economic policies. Sowell noted the impact on the stock market and acknowledged that many are delaying financial decisions until there is more clarity on the administration’s direction.
Thomas Sowell, who retired from his syndicated column in 2016 at age 86, is highly regarded within conservative and libertarian circles, with some advocating for him to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his contributions to economics and public policy. The Hoover Institution announced that the complete interview with Sowell will premiere on April 15 as part of the “Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson” series.