The upcoming week will be marked by central bank meetings in various parts of the world, with a special focus on Japan and the Eurozone. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also holds significance, showcasing a consensus call of 2% for the Q4 GDP report. In addition, leading indicators and PMI data for January will also shape the market outlook for the week. Société Générale’s Chief Global FX Strategist, Kit Juckes, provides analysis of the FX market outlook, emphasizing the potential impact of central bank inaction on the USD/JPY exchange rate.
The silence from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is highly anticipated, with the possibility of a market reaction despite the expectation of inaction. Any indication from the BoJ regarding concerns about market distortion from yield curve control could trigger a sharp Yen rally. However, complete silence from the BoJ could lead to another test of USD/JPY 150.00. Meanwhile, the upcoming Bank of Canada meeting is also expected to result in no action, but any hints from the meeting could prompt a market reaction. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday is also anticipated to push back against market pricing, influencing the market outlook for the Euro. Additionally, any positive news in UK data following last week’s disappointing performance could impact the market.
Overall, the central bank meetings in Japan and the Eurozone, along with US GDP and PMI data for January, will serve as key factors influencing the FX market outlook for the week. Any indications from the central banks or unexpected market reactions could potentially lead to significant movements in currency exchange rates.