The UK jobs data for December showed an unemployment rate of 3.8%, which was better than the expected 4.0%. This positive news has led to an increase in the value of the pound against the US dollar, with GBP/USD rising from 1.2620 to 1.2640. However, there are still uncertainties surrounding the situation, and traders are waiting to see how the upcoming US CPI data will impact the market.
In early February, the GBP/USD pair seemed to be on the verge of a technical breakout as it dropped below the 1.2600 level. This decline also led to the crossing of its 200-day moving average. But this turned out to be a false breakout, as the pair quickly returned to its previous trading range of 1.2600 to 1.2800. The next major event that traders will be watching closely is the release of US CPI data.
Although the positive jobs data may not significantly alter the Bank of England’s (BOE) stance on monetary policy, it has led to a decrease in the likelihood of a rate cut in June. The current odds stand at around 75%, but some analysts believe that it is more of a 50-50 call at this point. More data will be needed in the coming months to confirm any changes in the central bank’s position.