Election analyst Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report recently discussed the latest polling data in key U.S. Senate races with NPR’s A Martinez. With the presidential election only a week away, the tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump is not the only focus; significant attention is also being directed at Senate races across several states. Currently, Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate with 51 seats, compared to the Republicans’ 49 seats.
Taylor identified West Virginia as the most vulnerable seat, where retiring Senator Joe Manchin’s position is expected to transition to Republican control. This potential shift effectively leaves Democrats at a 50-50 split, making it crucial for them to hold onto their incumbents. Jon Tester of Montana, running for reelection in a state that Trump carried by 16 points, is viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Historical voting patterns from 2016 and 2020 show a strong alignment between Senate and presidential race outcomes, with only Susan Collins breaking this trend in recent years. Tester appears to be trailing in polls, leading the Cook Political Report to rate this race as lean Republican.
Ohio’s Senate race is also highly contested, with Democrat Sherrod Brown competing in a state Trump won by 8 points. Brown is closely aligned in polls with his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, who has not shown strong performance. Despite Trump’s anticipated win in Ohio, Brown may still attract Trump voters, indicative of a tight competition.
In Wisconsin, the Senate race is narrowing, with Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin facing Republican Eric Hovde, who has injected $20 million of his own money into the campaign. Similar tightening is observed in Pennsylvania, where Senator Bob Casey, initially leading, is seeing his Republican opponent, Dave McCormick, gaining ground through substantial financial backing and focusing efforts in rural areas. Consequently, Pennsylvania’s race rating shifted from lean Democrat to toss-up.
Michigan features an open seat race where Democrat Elissa Slotkin is pitted against former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. The contest remains close, but Slotkin’s robust fundraising might offer her an advantage if Vice President Harris secures a win in the state.
Taylor also noted potential surprises in Arizona and Nevada, where Democrats maintain leads despite Trump’s strong performance, attributed to candidate quality issues such as with Republican Kari Lake in Arizona.
Unexpectedly competitive races have arisen in Texas and Nebraska. In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz is challenged by Congressman Colin Allred, with recent polling showing a narrow 4-point lead for Cruz, influenced by the state’s abortion laws. Meanwhile, in Nebraska, Republican Deb Fischer is in a close race against independent Dan Osborn, who appeals to working-class voters and remains undecided on party caucusing, which could influence the Senate’s balance if he wins.
In summary, the outcome of several pivotal Senate races remains uncertain and could significantly impact the political landscape depending on the election results.