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In the 2017 film “The Death of Stalin,” the dictator is discovered unconscious following a stroke, leading to a comical yet intense situation where his subordinates, Khrushchev, Malenkov, and Beria, are paralyzed with fear. They debate calling a doctor, with Malenkov hesitating and suggesting a committee decision, while Khrushchev insists on immediate medical attention. This delay in action contributes to Stalin’s death at age 74.
A similar, albeit more serious, scenario may unfold in coming years in some of the world’s most populated nations. The rise of “personalist regimes,” dominated by individual leaders rather than ideological parties, marks contemporary geopolitics. These leaders, including Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, were all born between 1950 and 1954, approaching the age at which Stalin died. Indonesia’s incoming president, Prabowo Subianto, fits this strongman profile as well. Additionally, Donald Trump, an advocate of a personalist leadership style, is even older. As these leaders near the end of their lives, global political instability may increase, bringing both chaos and the opportunity for positive change.
From Stalin’s death in 1953 until 1990, personalist regimes were uncommon. During this period, leadership in communist states was typically committee-based. When a general secretary passed away, a successor would take over without significant upheaval. However, following the collapse of communism, committee-based regimes became a rarity, with Cuba’s Communist Party and Iran’s clerical leadership as notable exceptions.
Today, many nations are under “sultanist” regimes led by powerful, long-term presidents. Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China exemplify this trend, where a single leader wields significant authority. As these leaders age, they become more focused on securing their legacies. For instance, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with reports of his health issues, and Xi’s strategic timeline for Taiwan appears influenced by his age.
Aging leaders’ decision-making capabilities may also deteriorate, raising the stakes further. Some leaders, such as Trump, exhibit signs of cognitive decline yet retain control over critical decisions, including military actions. These leaders, shaped by past political crises, may be less attuned to contemporary issues like climate change or artificial intelligence.
Uncertainty intensifies due to the lack of clear successors. In contrast to hereditary regimes in countries like North Korea, succession in personalist dictatorships such as Russia or Turkey is unpredictable, with multiple contenders vying for power. As Harvard’s Sarah Hummel notes, coup attempts become more likely as leaders age.
Some regimes could collapse with their leaders, akin to General Franco’s Spanish regime in 1975. Anne Meng of the University of Virginia found that most ruling parties fail to survive the departure of their founding leaders. Even ostensibly single-party regimes might be mere extensions of their leaders’ personal power.
According to Ora John Reuter of the University of Wisconsin, regimes with strong mass organizations, such as Modi’s BJP, Erdoğan’s AKP, or Xi’s Communist Party, are more likely to endure. In contrast, movements led by figures like Putin and Trump may crumble with their deaths due to weaker grassroots structures.
A potential exception is Trump, whose children could continue to leverage the family brand in politics, following a pattern seen with leaders like Filipino President Bongbong Marcos or Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina.
While personalist regime collapses can lead to state failure, as in Venezuela post-Chávez, history suggests that what follows may often be somewhat less dire, offering a sliver of hope reminiscent of the post-Stalin era.
For further inquiries, Simon Kuper can be reached at simon.kuper@ft.com. Follow @FTMag on Twitter for the latest updates and listen to the Life and Art podcast on popular platforms.