Oil prices were approaching their lowest levels since the height of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021 as of Friday. This decline was driven by new tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump and an increase in output declared by the OPEC+ group of oil producers.
Brent crude futures saw a drop of $2.29, or 3.3%, reaching $67.85 a barrel by 09:48 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by $2.32, or 3.5%, bringing it down to $64.63 a barrel. Both benchmarks were on track for their most significant weekly losses in percentage terms in six months.
While Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday negatively impacted crude prices, the repercussions were even more pronounced in other areas. Investors sought refuge in bonds, the Japanese yen, and gold as the announcement sent ripples through global financial markets. Consequently, the dollar index, which compares the U.S. currency against six others, dropped to 102.98, its lowest point since mid-October.
John Evans, an oil broker at PVM, noted that the combination of Trump’s tariffs and the OPEC+ output increase left the oil market with little choice but to succumb to a selling pressure reminiscent of the pandemic-induced collapse. This downturn extended into Asian markets.
The sell-off was exacerbated by OPEC+ agreeing to expedite plans to increase production, announcing a target to add 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd. Evans remarked on the remarkable timing of these decisions.
While imports of oil, gas, and refined products were exempted from Trump’s tariffs, the policies might drive inflation, hinder economic growth, and escalate trade tensions—factors that could continue to pressure oil prices. In response, Goldman Sachs analysts reduced their December 2025 price targets for Brent and WTI by $5 each, adjusting them to $66 and $62, respectively. The bank’s head of oil research, Daan Struyven, noted that risks to their revised forecasts tilt towards the downside, particularly for 2026, due to potential recession threats and increased OPEC+ supply.
Despite the current downward trend, analysts at Rystad Energy suggested the possibility of oil prices rebounding in the coming months. Mukesh Sahdev, Rystad’s global head of commodity markets, stated that potential supply disruptions from sanctions and tariffs could prevent prices from remaining below $70 for an extended period.