The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on interest rates is just hours away, and the Australian dollar is in desperate need of a boost. However, with no change expected in the 4.35% cash target, and the unlikelihood of a shift back to rate hikes, the outlook for the Aussie dollar remains uncertain. The market is currently pricing in a fractional chance of a rate cut today, with the likelihood rising to 50/50 by June. Any pushback against cuts is likely to be dismissed, given the potential for significant changes between now and the June 18 meeting. The best hope for the Australian dollar lies in a shift in China, but with Beijing effectively on holiday, any positive developments may be delayed until mid-month at best.
On a technical level, the Australian dollar’s recent decline has led to the breakdown of the Dec-Jan lows, and a potential head-and-shoulders pattern is emerging, pointing to a further decline to 0.6200. While the October low near 0.6260 may provide some support, the overall picture for the Australian dollar is not a positive one. Given this, the Australian dollar bulls are anxiously awaiting the RBA’s decision, but the future looks uncertain unless there is a significant shift in China’s position.