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Analyst says bank earnings show capital markets are making a comeback.

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Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have both reported their first quarter earnings, exceeding expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Bank of America reported revenue of $25.82 billion, surpassing estimates of $25.61 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $0.83, beating the $0.77 estimate. Similarly, Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $15.14 billion, outperforming the $14.46 billion estimate, with adjusted EPS of $2.02, exceeding the $1.66 estimate. Stephen Biggar from Argus Research highlights the resurgence in capital markets as the major theme in these results, with strong performance in capital markets-related businesses such as wealth management, investment banking, and trading.

Despite the positive performance in capital markets, Biggar notes that the lending business and net interest income have faced challenges, with anemic loan growth and higher deposit costs affecting overall growth. Looking ahead, Biggar predicts a durable upturn in investment banking, with advisory revenues expected to gain momentum in the later quarters of the year. With a strong pipeline of deals and pent-up demand following two years of sluggish activity, there is optimism for continued growth in the capital markets sector. Additionally, IPO activity surged in the first quarter, indicating a more favorable environment for private-to-public conversion and market valuations.

Overall, the earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reflect a mixed performance across different sectors of the financial industry. While capital markets-related businesses show strength, challenges in lending and net interest income suggest potential areas for improvement. Looking ahead, the focus is on sustained growth in investment banking and capital markets, with a positive outlook for advisory revenues and private-to-public conversions. Despite fluctuations in market valuations, the overall sentiment is optimistic for continued progress in the financial sector.

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