Predicting the stock market’s fluctuations is challenging, and many forecasts have proven inaccurate. This was especially true at the end of 2022, during a severe bear market, as stocks plummeted and conventional wisdom suggested a continued downward spiral due to a tough Federal Reserve stance and slower economic growth. Many were hesitant to be optimistic given that the S&P 500 had fallen by 24% from the end of 2021 to September 2022.
Nevertheless, some analysts, such as long-time Wall Street analyst Tom Lee, anticipated the stock market rally, which resulted in consecutive 20% returns in 2023 and 2024. Lee, along with his team at Fundstrat, consistently maintained a bullish outlook, forecasting that the S&P 500 would reach a record high of 7,000 by 2025.
Expectations have since shifted. The Federal Reserve had been anticipated to implement interest rate cuts this year; however, due to persistent inflation, it is now expected to hold interest rates steady, potentially impacting corporate profits adversely. This shift has introduced uncertainty and increased market volatility, prompting Lee to issue an update on the situation.
Despite a 24% rally in 2024, 2025 has seen some volatility, with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dipping by 2.5% and the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) dropping 3.5% since February 19. Technology stocks, in particular, have been hit hard, with Tesla (TSLA) experiencing over an 8% decline, Nvidia witnessing a 10% drop from a recent peak, and Palantir (PLTR) falling 27% from last week’s high.
This recent downturn has caused some concern, given that technology stocks constitute over 30% of the S&P 500 and have substantially driven the market’s rise to new highs this month. Historically, market pullbacks are typical, with an average annual decline of at least 5% since 1954, according to Capital Group.
Amid the market sell-off, Lee remains optimistic. He finds it encouraging that stocks have not fallen more sharply despite some negative news, including a less favorable earnings outlook from Walmart and an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to 3% in January from 2.4% in September.
Lee reiterated his stance that buying the dip remains a sensible approach. Fundstrat’s chief technical analyst, Mark Newton, also sees no significant decline in equities, reinforcing the view that the market is fundamentally sound. He anticipates a brief consolidation phase for the markets before a substantial upward movement.